Southampton vs Derby County Prediction

For this FA Cup fixture we go with Under 2.5 goals for Southampton vs Derby County, at 88% confidence. In their last 5 matches, Southampton's games produced 2.8 goals on average, 4 of them over 2.5. Derby County's games averaged 3.8, with 3 of 5 over the line. Recent form leans the other way: only 3 of the 10 recent games went under 2.5.

The head-to-head points the other way: only 0 of their last 1 meetings finished under 2.5 goals. Older meetings say less about how these teams play now, so recent form counts for more in our numbers. At 88%, most of the recent evidence lands on this side of the line, which makes it one of our stronger calls. Final score: 2-2. The pick lost.

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