Maritimo vs Tondela Prediction

Our pick for Maritimo vs Tondela in Primeira Liga is Under 2.5 goals, with 91% confidence. Recent form: 3 of Maritimo's last 5 games went over 2.5 goals (3.4 goals per game in total), against 2 of 5 for Tondela (2.4 per game). Form on its own doesn't settle this one: 5 of the 10 recent games went under 2.5, which is worth keeping in mind before backing Under 2.5.

The head-to-head points the other way: only 1 of their last 3 meetings finished under 2.5 goals. Older meetings say less about how these teams play now, so recent form counts for more in our numbers. At 91%, most of the recent evidence lands on this side of the line, which makes it one of our stronger calls. Final score: 2-0. The pick won.

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