Stoke City vs Derby County Prediction

Our pick for Stoke City vs Derby County in Championship is Under 2.5 goals, with 78% confidence. Recent form: 3 of Stoke City's last 5 games went over 2.5 goals (2.2 goals per game in total), against 2 of 5 for Derby County (2.0 per game). Form on its own doesn't settle this one: 5 of the 10 recent games went under 2.5, which is worth keeping in mind before backing Under 2.5.

The head-to-head points the other way: only 2 of their last 5 meetings finished under 2.5 goals. Older meetings say less about how these teams play now, so recent form counts for more in our numbers. At 78%, most of the recent evidence lands on this side of the line, which makes it one of our stronger calls. Final score: 1-0. The pick won.

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