Home/International Tips/England vs Italy
European ChampionshipTuesday, 17 October 2023 · Full-time3-1✕
ENG

England

VS
ITA

Italy

England vs Italy Prediction

Under2.5 goals
94% confidence

Why we picked this for England vs Italy

For this European Championship fixture we go with Under 2.5 goals for England vs Italy, at 94% confidence. In their last 5 matches, England's games produced 3.6 goals on average, 3 of them over 2.5. Italy's games averaged 3.4, with 4 of 5 over the line. Recent form leans the other way: only 3 of the 10 recent games went under 2.5.

History between the two sides fits the pick too: 4 of 5 recent meetings went under 2.5. At 94%, most of the recent evidence lands on this side of the line, which makes it one of our stronger calls. Final score: 3-1. The pick lost.

How we make our predictions →

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3.6
avg goals, England last 5
3.4
avg goals, Italy last 5
20%
last 5 H2H went over 2.5
7 / 10
combined form matches over

Last 5 matches, each side

Most recent match first. Tag shows whether that match went over or under 2.5 total goals.

England
Ukraine 1-1 England
Sep 09, 2023
Under 2.5✓
England 7-0 North Macedonia
Jun 19, 2023
Over 2.5✕
Malta 0-4 England
Jun 16, 2023
Over 2.5✕
England 2-0 Ukraine
Mar 26, 2023
Under 2.5✓
Italy 1-2 England
Mar 23, 2023
Over 2.5✕
Italy
Italy 4-0 Malta
Oct 14, 2023
Over 2.5✕
Italy 2-1 Ukraine
Sep 12, 2023
Over 2.5✕
North Macedonia 1-1 Italy
Sep 09, 2023
Under 2.5✓
Netherlands 2-3 Italy
Jun 18, 2023
Over 2.5✕
Spain 2-1 Italy
Jun 15, 2023
Over 2.5✕

Last 5 meetings

England vs Italy, most recent first.

DateHomeAwayScoreResult
Mar 23, 2023ItalyEngland1-2
Over 2.5✕
Sep 23, 2022ItalyEngland1-0
Under 2.5✓
Jun 11, 2022EnglandItaly0-0
Under 2.5✓
Jul 11, 2021ItalyEngland1-1
Under 2.5✓
Jun 24, 2012EnglandItaly0-0
Under 2.5✓