Home/England Tips/Derby County vs Southampton
ChampionshipSaturday, 04 October 2025 · Full-time1-1✕
DER

Derby County

VS
SOU

Southampton

Derby County vs Southampton Prediction

Over2.5 goals
85% confidence

Why we picked this for Derby County vs Southampton

Our pick for Derby County vs Southampton in Championship is Over 2.5 goals, with 85% confidence. Recent form: 1 of Derby County's last 5 games went over 2.5 goals (2.0 goals per game in total), against 3 of 5 for Southampton (2.6 per game). Form on its own doesn't settle this one: 4 of the 10 recent games went over 2.5, which is worth keeping in mind before backing Over 2.5.

Previous meetings agree, with 2 of the last 2 head-to-heads ending over 2.5. At 85%, most of the recent evidence lands on this side of the line, which makes it one of our stronger calls. Final score: 1-1. The pick lost.

How we make our predictions →

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2.0
avg goals, Derby County last 5
2.6
avg goals, Southampton last 5
100%
last 2 H2H went over 2.5
4 / 10
combined form matches over

Last 5 matches, each side

Most recent match first. Tag shows whether that match went over or under 2.5 total goals.

Derby County
Derby County 1-1 Charlton Athletic
Sep 30, 2025
Under 2.5✕
Wrexham 1-1 Derby County
Sep 27, 2025
Under 2.5✕
Derby County 0-1 Preston North End
Sep 20, 2025
Under 2.5✕
West Bromwich Albion 0-1 Derby County
Sep 13, 2025
Under 2.5✕
Ipswich Town 2-2 Derby County
Aug 30, 2025
Over 2.5✓
Southampton
Sheffield United 1-2 Southampton
Sep 30, 2025
Over 2.5✓
Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough
Sep 27, 2025
Under 2.5✕
Hull City 3-1 Southampton
Sep 20, 2025
Over 2.5✓
Southampton 0-0 Portsmouth
Sep 14, 2025
Under 2.5✕
Watford 2-2 Southampton
Aug 30, 2025
Over 2.5✓

Last 2 meetings

Derby County vs Southampton, most recent first.

DateHomeAwayScoreResult
Jan 16, 2019SouthamptonDerby County2-3
Over 2.5✓
Jan 05, 2019Derby CountySouthampton2-2
Over 2.5✓