Chelsea
Arsenal
Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction
Why we picked this for Chelsea vs Arsenal
Over 2.5 goals is our call for Chelsea against Arsenal (EFL Trophy), rated at 66% confidence. Matches involving Chelsea produced 3.6 goals per game over their last 5, and 4 of those went over 2.5. For Arsenal it is 3.6 goals per game, with 4 of 5 over 2.5. The form of both teams backs the call.
Past meetings don't back this call, with just 2 of the last 5 head-to-heads ending over 2.5. Recent form weighs more heavily than older fixtures, which is why the pick stands. The 66% confidence reflects a real but modest lean in the recent numbers. The match ended 2-3, so Over 2.5 landed.
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Last 5 matches, each side
Most recent match first. Tag shows whether that match went over or under 2.5 total goals.
Last 5 meetings
Chelsea vs Arsenal, most recent first.
| Date | Home | Away | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Chelsea | Arsenal | 1-1 | Under 2.5✕ |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Arsenal | Chelsea | 1-0 | Under 2.5✕ |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Chelsea | Arsenal | 1-1 | Under 2.5✕ |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Arsenal | Chelsea | 5-0 | Over 2.5✓ |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Chelsea | Arsenal | 2-2 | Over 2.5✓ |