Home/UEFA Tips/Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
Champions LeagueWednesday, 29 April 2026 · Full-time1-1✓
ATL

Atletico Madrid

VS
ARS

Arsenal

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction

Under2.5 goals
100% confidence

Why we picked this for Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal

Under 2.5 goals is our call for Atletico Madrid against Arsenal (Champions League), rated at 100% confidence. Matches involving Atletico Madrid produced 4.0 goals per game over their last 5, and 5 of those went over 2.5. For Arsenal it is 1.6 goals per game, with 2 of 5 over 2.5. Recent form leans the other way: only 3 of the 10 recent games went under 2.5.

The head-to-head points the same way: 2 of their last 3 meetings finished under 2.5 goals. At 100%, most of the recent evidence lands on this side of the line, which makes it one of our stronger calls. Final score: 1-1. The pick won.

How we make our predictions →

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4.0
avg goals, Atletico Madrid last 5
1.6
avg goals, Arsenal last 5
33%
last 3 H2H went over 2.5
7 / 10
combined form matches over

Last 5 matches, each side

Most recent match first. Tag shows whether that match went over or under 2.5 total goals.

Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid 3-2 Athletic Bilbao
Apr 25, 2026
Over 2.5✕
Elche 3-2 Atletico Madrid
Apr 22, 2026
Over 2.5✕
Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Sociedad
Apr 18, 2026
Over 2.5✕
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona
Apr 14, 2026
Over 2.5✕
Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Apr 11, 2026
Over 2.5✕
Arsenal
Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle
Apr 25, 2026
Under 2.5✓
Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal
Apr 19, 2026
Over 2.5✕
Arsenal 0-0 Sporting Lisbon
Apr 15, 2026
Under 2.5✓
Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth
Apr 11, 2026
Over 2.5✕
Sporting Lisbon 0-1 Arsenal
Apr 07, 2026
Under 2.5✓

Last 3 meetings

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal, most recent first.

DateHomeAwayScoreResult
Oct 21, 2025ArsenalAtletico Madrid4-0
Over 2.5✕
May 03, 2018Atletico MadridArsenal1-0
Under 2.5✓
Apr 26, 2018ArsenalAtletico Madrid1-1
Under 2.5✓